Anyone can claim good judgment. I'd rather show you the receipts.
From late 2022 to 2024 I led due diligence at TribeFirst, a UK investment agency that took equity in the startups it backed. My job was to tear each company's financials apart and answer one question: is this founder telling themselves a story, or is there a real business here? If I got it wrong, the firm ate the loss. Every call is below, including the one I got wrong. The companies are named, the outcomes are public. Check them yourself.
The pitch could easily have read as hype: cannabis, Switzerland, a regulatory story. I dug into what actually mattered. Their GMP certification was months away and credible, their valuation held up when I benchmarked real acquisitions in the space adjusted for manufacturing capacity, and the EU regulatory direction gave the thesis room to run.
What happened: Swissmedic granted the GMP license in December 2023, on the timeline I underwrote. The crowdfunding round passed £1M from more than 550 investors. Today Swisscann cultivates high-THC medical cannabis at its GMP facility near Zurich and distributes into Swiss and German pharmacies through an exclusive partnership. The agency's owners were convinced enough by my report that they personally invested in the round.
Everything about Taur looked fundable. A GOOD DESIGN award, a team with Tesla and McLaren alumni, a striking product, a prior raise behind them. I looked at the unit economics and at where investor sentiment on micromobility was heading, and neither supported the story. I advised the agency to walk.
What happened: within roughly two years, customers were publicly reporting dead support lines, unanswered emails, and an app that vanished from stores, while still paying off their scooters.
Subscription businesses live or die on unit economics, and Blike's held up: the retention math, the asset utilization, the path to scale. I underwrote the yes on those numbers.
What happened: Blike has since secured approval for a £10M debt facility to expand, underwritten on the strength of the same unit economics.
A beloved brand with a seven-figure crowd raise behind it and real cultural momentum. The review came to me in March 2024. Debt servicing was growing, revenue was uncertain, and the turnaround plan assumed the best case at every step. I said pass.
What happened: the company entered administration on 9 August 2024, roughly five months after my review. The brand continues under a successor. The equity didn't make it.
Great reviews and customers who loved the product, which is exactly why I expected the crowdfunding campaign to fund. But the unit economics were weak, CAC ran too high for the price point, and the competition was strong. My call cut both ways: the raise would succeed, and the equity wasn't worth backing.
What happened: both halves aged true. The campaign hit 100% funded in late 2023, and the business has stayed flat since.
April 2023. A bootstrapped shower-filter brand with real DTC traction. The product showed promise, but the valuation they wanted was rich and I doubted investors would meet them there. I said pass.
What happened: Hello Klean grew to £5.5M revenue, took a strategic investment from Brita, and raised growth financing in 2025 to expand internationally. A clean miss. It stays on this page for the same reason the wins do: a scoreboard only means something if every call is on it.
A James Dyson Award winner with pilot interest from Spotify and Siemens Energy. Genuinely clever engineering, and one of the most seductive stories I reviewed. But the addressable market was a niche measured in the low hundreds of millions while solar compounded next door, the product was unproven in commercial conditions, and the launch timeline looked optimistic. I recommended waiting for pilot results rather than committing capital.
What happened: three years later the company remains pre-revenue, with the product still in development and launch now targeted for 2027.
Status checked July 2026, from public records. Three further reviews are omitted because my records for them are incomplete.
| Company | Sector | My call | Status, July 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swisscann | Medical cannabis | invest | GMP licensed, distributing in CH/DE |
| Blike | E-bike subscriptions | invest | £10M debt facility approved for expansion |
| Workshop Coffee | Specialty coffee | invest | Thriving; ~40 luxury hotel partners |
| Redemption Roasters | Coffee, social impact | invest | £2.7M follow-on round, expanding |
| Betmate | Social betting | invest | Live; raised further funding |
| Sorair | Drone surveillance | invest | UK-wide CAA approval, 2025 |
| Upp | Agritech | invest | £3.5M funded; retail products expected 2026 |
| Go Thrift | Fashion resale | invest | Trading as Loopi |
| SSTimepieces | Luxury watches | invest | Trading as Onaro |
| SRSLY Low Carb | Low-carb food | invest | Trading; raise funded 137% |
| Repro Stream | Production video tech | invest | Trading; shipping new product |
| Serious Tissues | Sustainable paper | invest | Trading; range expanded |
| ParcelHero | Logistics | invest | Trading |
| EasySend | Remittances | invest | Trading, FCA-registered |
| Taur | Premium e-scooters | pass | Collapsed within two years |
| Club Mexicana | Vegan hospitality | pass | Administration, August 2024 |
| The Good Roll | Sustainable paper | pass | Widening losses; regulator rebuke |
| Ambio | Circular materials SaaS | pass | Minimal traction since raise |
| O-Innovations | Urban wind turbines | pass | Still pre-revenue; launch pushed to 2027 |
| Amino | Sports nutrition | pass on equity | Raise funded 100%; business flat since |
| Ealing Distillery | Craft spirits | pass | Trading, small scale |
| Hello Klean | Water-first beauty | pass · my miss | Thriving; Brita-backed, £5.5M revenue |
It's knowing which one the data supports, and saying it plainly, even when the story is charming and the room wants a yes.
The call that wasn't an investmentA founder once brought me in weeks before signing an expensive franchise license for a boxing gym chain he wanted to bring to Saudi Arabia. I built the model, showed him the CAC and retention the franchise fees demanded, then sat beside him on the diligence calls and took the franchisor's projections apart, including locations that were quietly going out of business and hadn't come up. He walked away from the deal. It's some of the best money he never spent.
The same discipline now runs through my ecommerce work. See it applied in the case study →